Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Linkfest 10/30/2008
- Days of huge and easy oil reserves are over (WSJ)
- Things expected to get worse next quarter (Bloomberg)
- UK companies likely to gain more from dollar rise and sterling's decline than neighbors (Reuters)
- AAPL is the most undervalued company among large techs (Bullish Cross)
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Linkfest 10/29/2008
- The death of Vista and cannibalization of Office (NYT)
- Earth not running out of oil soon, but output of old fields declining (@ 9.1% annual) faster than expected, need to invest $360bn over next 22 years (FT)
- Gulf states using the typical "long-term investor" face saving trick (WSJ)
- Wheat's biggest single day jump in 20 years (Bloomberg) [DBA]
- Emerging markets cheap on trailing P/E basis but currency risk significant (US Global Investors) [EWZ, RSX, IFN, FXI]
Monday, October 27, 2008
Linkfest 10/28/2008
- Japan's economy getting by external factors (WSJ)
- Microsoft's push into Africa (WSJ)
- Pakistan and IMF (WSJ)
- 700 new-car dealerships might close this year (WSJ)
- Dubai real estate boom is ending (WSJ)
- Pakistan getting closer to financial disaster with every passing day (FT)
- So much for the decoupling of markets (IndexUniverse)
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Linkfest 10/23/2008
- Performance reviews do more harm than good (WSJ)
- Oil countries face reckoning (IHT)
- Walmart hints about the economic situation (SeekingAlpha)
- Drop in prescription drug sales (NYT)
- Possible reasons for dollar's strength (Plus EV)
- Reasons for optimism (IndexUniverse)
- The problem with homeowner bailout plans (InvestorCentric)
- The worst year ever for S&P500 (BIG)
- Changing financial habits of baby boomers (Analytical Wealth)
Monday, October 20, 2008
Pakistan's financial crisis - status 10/20/2008
According to WSJ, Pakistan is looking to IMF for loan in order to finance the debt payments. This is after China pretty much refused to provide any assistance.
Since Pakistan's credit rating has been cut lately, the interest rate on which IMF will provide funds is most likely going to be much higher than the rates of its current loans. This means that the debt load will rise further and so will the probability of default. The preconditions of this loan will include spending cuts and tax increases. I don't see any reduction in government spending any time soon. Why is that? The newly elected govt has to recoup the funds that it spent on election campaigns and also provide assistance in the form of contracts and jobs to their near and dear.
That brings us to tax increases, now who pays taxes honestly in Pakistan. Well for starters, the average person who works in a government or semi-government organization. Due to tax withholding, he has not option left to him but to pay them. Do you think that above average or above median revenue earners (industries, land owner, businessmen) honestly pay taxes due on their incomes? We are talking about Pakistan here so you need to think again. Now who gets the burden of tax increases? Yep, you got that right, the average guy who has already been crushed under the burden of paying for not only his earnings but also the tax evaders. Now he has to bear even bigger load.
Since Pakistan's credit rating has been cut lately, the interest rate on which IMF will provide funds is most likely going to be much higher than the rates of its current loans. This means that the debt load will rise further and so will the probability of default. The preconditions of this loan will include spending cuts and tax increases. I don't see any reduction in government spending any time soon. Why is that? The newly elected govt has to recoup the funds that it spent on election campaigns and also provide assistance in the form of contracts and jobs to their near and dear.
That brings us to tax increases, now who pays taxes honestly in Pakistan. Well for starters, the average person who works in a government or semi-government organization. Due to tax withholding, he has not option left to him but to pay them. Do you think that above average or above median revenue earners (industries, land owner, businessmen) honestly pay taxes due on their incomes? We are talking about Pakistan here so you need to think again. Now who gets the burden of tax increases? Yep, you got that right, the average guy who has already been crushed under the burden of paying for not only his earnings but also the tax evaders. Now he has to bear even bigger load.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Friday, October 17, 2008
Linkfest 10/17/2008
- Warren Buffet is buying mode now (NYT)
- Sharp drop in US oil demand (WSJ)
- Recessions means a spike in illegal immigrant deportations (WSJ)
- Middle East and China funds resume their investment spree (WSJ)
- GOOG Q3 results (WSJ)
- Decline in commodities doesn't mean cheaper food (WSJ)
- Andrew Lahde's (HFM) goodbye letter (worth a read) (The Big Picture)
- More about Andrew Lahde (FT, FT)
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Linkfest 10/16/2008
- Turkmenistan gas field 5th largest in the world (WSJ)
- Behaving responsibly will get you in trouble (Infectious Greed)
- Home prices seem far from bottom (NYT)
- Sharp declines in equities partly due to hedge fund unwind (Infectious Greed)
- Dumping stocks now might not be such a good idea (Don Fishback)
- We have a global recession for sure (The Big Picture)
- Want to invest in wool? (HardAssetInvestor)
- Even Citadel is down 26% YTD, time to reconsider that arrogance (Fund my Mutual Fund, WSJ)
- Another cyclical bottom call (Trader's Narrative)
- Yet another reason to be bullish: Merrill's fund manager survey (WSJ)
- The Subprime Panic (SSRN)
- Peer-to-peer lending in a bit of trouble (NYT)
- Barclays Global Investors has $2.08 trillion under management (II)
- $43 billion pulled out US hedge funds in Sept (FT)
- Crusader Fund closing doors (Bloomberg)
- No matter what your strategy is you are f@#$&^ (NakedShorts)
- Yet another buy call (Econbrowser)
Largest drop in S&P500 till now for the current bear market
Bespoke did a comparison of biggest drops in history and today's drop stand at number 8. Notice that 9 out of 15 happened in October.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Linkfest 10/15/2008
- New sector leaders (Ticker Sense)
- Slow down in Chinese demand (FT)
- Please die peacefully at 59 (the ONION)
- Correlation between Democratic president and stock market is meaningless (Greg Mankiw)
- Go wash your hands! (SciAm)
- Top 10 excuses (CXO Advisory Group)
Monday, October 13, 2008
Linkfest 10/13/2008
- Global effect of the financial crisis (WSJ)
- Every stock is undervalued (Ockham Research)
- BRIC trade is over (Portfolio.com)
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Linkfest 10/10/2008
- Prepare to go long (The Big Picture)
- IEA cuts global oil demand increase forcecast to 0.5% for 2008 (NYT)
- Gulf states' markets have lost $350 bil since Jan (WSJ)
- Jim Rogers doesn't agree with bailing out a bunch of Maserati driving Wall Streeters (CNBC)
- Tiger Cubs or Wet Cats (NY Post)
- Hedgies that couldn't hedge (Economist)
- Lots of people to blame for the current crisis (Aleph Blog)
- The secular bear market may end in 2017 (Juggling Dynamite)
- Paper: A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation (SSRN)
- Paper: Does Trend Following Work on Stocks? (pdf)
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