Wednesday, September 23, 2009

3 Metrics to Consider Before Investing In a House

Mish mentioned the first 3 metrics to consider when investing in a house:

1) How much are home price out of whack with rental prices? (i.e. What does it cost to own vs. rent a similar house? Keep in mind maintenance, property taxes, etc.)
2) How much above the trendline growth in price appreciation are home prices selling? (Was there an unexpected or unwarranted acceleration in prices over a number of years?)
3) How much have home prices appreciated vs. wages

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Some Data Regarding Facebook

According to WSJ story, as of Sep 16:
  • Total number of users: 300 million
  • Number of users added during last 1.5 months: 50 million
  • User location split US/International (%): 30/70
  • First operating cash flow positive quarter: Q2 (Apr) 2009
  • Expected 2009 revenue: $500 million (70% YoY growth)

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Shanghai Composite Approaching 61.8% Retracement

USO Below Intermediate Term Trendline.


After repeated attempts to cross $39 mark, USO finally closed below the intermediate term trendline. MACD is also confirming waning momentum. Considering the weakness in the broader market and the strength in US dollar, its not surprising at all. Before opening a short position, it would be better to wait for a rally, which reverses at the trendline, confirming start of the down trend.

Full Disclosure: No position in USO.