Saturday, July 28, 2007

Cramer's Buy List

  • Soft goods with good growth overseas. Pepsi's (PEP) now the best. Colgate (CL), after the quarter. I like Clorox (CLX). Kimberly-Clark's (KMB) now good.
  • Machinery, metal and mining stocks, the infrastructure you need to take advantage of them -- and what transports them to overseas. I don't include coal because the green movement has stopped it for now and the government has given up supporting coal -- at least, until it realizes it has no choice. Caterpillar's (CAT) right again. Foster Wheeler (FWLT) on a pullback, KBR (KBR) on a pullback, McDermott (MDR) after the quarter, Fluor (FLR), CB&I (CBI), Jacobs (JEC), Manitowoc (MTW), Terex (TEX).
  • Oil -- but not gas, unless we get some sort of disruption of supply for the latter. Extracting oil anywhere but North America is the strongest area, followed by the integrated oils. Will natural gas come back? Everything will come back, but this is a checklist of what can be bought now. Transocean (RIG) on a pullback, Halliburton (HAL) on a pullback, Schlumberger (SLB) on a pullback, Conoco (COP) and Chevron (CVX) now. XTO (XTO) for those willing to wait, as this one is the best wildcatters in the world. Apache's (APA) good too.
  • Tech that's international that does well as part of the back-to-school and holiday buildup. Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Texas Instruments (TXN), Adobe (ADBE) all good.
  • Drugs that do lots of business overseas. Merck (MRK), Schering (SGP) and Lilly (LLY) all good.
  • Health care cost containment. Think Medco (MHS) and CVS (CVS).
  • Aerospace and defense. Aerospace because demand is international with a new product cycle, and defense because we now know the war drags on, no matter what. Alliant Tech (ATK) is the best there, now that we have seen Lockheed Martin (LMT). I would still buy Lockheed and L-3 (LLL) and Raytheon (RTN). Boeing (BA) works. So does Riverbed (RVBD).
  • The Web. Google's (GOOG) been punished long enough. Growth is too great. Omniture (OMTR) and Level 3 (LVLT) are the preferred specs.
  • Ag. Be careful about a robust corn crop, but this works into the election. Deere (DE), Bunge (BG), Monsanto (MON).

Friday, July 27, 2007

Foreign Telecom Stocks Traded In US

  • Millicom International Cellular (MICC)
  • America Movil (AMX)
  • Chinal Mobile (CHL)
  • VimpelCom (VIP)
  • Mobile Telesystems (MBT)
  • TIM Participacoes (TSU)
  • Telemig (TMB)
  • SK Telecom (SKM)
  • Turkcell (TKC)

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 26

  • Today's decline is not a one day event
  • Financials worst performing industry in S&P
  • Buy GS at $190, avoid JMP, and short XLF as the pair trade
  • Get out of energy stocks except drillers (OIH)
  • Volatility in S&P has gone higher compared to volatility in NASDAQ, so NASDAQ is being considered safer
  • Companies that have gone up on takeover speculation but are most vulnerable to a pullback: TGT, WEN, M, HOT, DDS, X, NUE
  • ETFs to get long now: DVY, PID, XLP
  • Warren Buffet, Carl Ichan and Nelson Peltz are buying KFT
  • Final trade: COST, MYGN, DELL, GS

Sector summary from Google finance July 26, 2007

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 25

  • Weakness in financials XLF isn't over yet
  • Don't chase BIDU after earnings
  • Buy integrated oils only if they hold their production levels
  • Rails hence NSC have had a good run, its time to take profits, longer term buy but sell short term
  • This isn't right time to get into BA, wait for pullback
  • Buy DCX and TM, both are fuel efficient car makers
  • Don't get into NTDOY right now
  • Big pharma making substantial move, GSK and MRK still a buy
  • MCD is a buy till there is a disparity between their stores
  • MRT and RUTH report next week, both are in high end dining and are levered to corporate customers which are not affected by price, MRT is better as they are able to manage meat cost which is up 30% over the past year
  • Final trade: WFR, HOG, BMY

Sector summary from Google finance July 25, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 24

  • Will post later

Monday, July 23, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 23

  • Plays off RIG-GSF deal: DO, RDC, NBR, LTR
  • AMLN a play on great diabetes drug pipeline and take over speculation
  • When oil touches $100, trades: stay out of airlines and homebuilders, long integrated oils XOM, CVX, COP, BP, Shell, Suncor if it goes past $100, people will stay home so tech: HPQ, DELL, INTC, online shopping: FDX, AMZN, EBAY, oil companies with more money fix up refineries etc so JEC, solar energy: STP and other
  • EWT performing great, Taiwan has phenomenal growth
  • Final trade: MSFT, SLT, AXP, GOOG

Sector summary from Google finance July 23, 2007

Sunday, July 22, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 20

  • Techs performed well JNPR, SNDK, BRCM, MRVL
  • Financials performing bad LEH, GS
  • Energy stocks still a buy: TOT, COP
  • Scenario: Another major investment bank says it has to close a hedge fund because subprime securities in the fund are deemed virtually worthless. Buy and sell? Short major investment banks because e.g. BSC dropped 4% in AH trading after announcement, short C, JPM, sell treasuries, Grade: A-, also include BX because financing private equity deals will become more expensive, LEH would be in trouble if this scenario unfolds
  • Scenario: Another steampipe in New York breaks and in the days that follow, cities from New York to Atlanta say they will double the amount of money they plan to spend to improve aging public works systems. Buy and sell? Buy engineering and construction firms FLR and SGR, also CAT as the US construction is what it needs, because of the materials needed the prices of steel and copper will go higher so buy NUE, also MDR for power grid. Grade: A
  • Scenario: Retail deal making heats up as KKR buys M and Eddie Lampert's SHLD buys SWY. Buy and sell? Short look at KSS and DDS as take over targets, also SVU is good, longer term the take over mania will drop and short these, and for longer term buy SHLD and WMT for management. Grade: A-
  • Scenario: Turkey's prime minister wins a majority of seats in parliamentary elections Sunday. He then decides to invade Northern Iraq to put down Kuridsh guerrillas there. Buy and sell? Sell Turkish sovereigns, intermediate yields are only between 6 and 7% as conservative investors head for the door, buy energy stocks which include APA trading at 11x earnings, great cash flow generation, also HLX which has off shore reserves. Grade: B
  • Final trade: MSFT, CLX, ZMH, RDC, SWC

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 19

  • GOOG missed earnings second time, first time missed caused a 10% decline in stock, probably NASDAQ will take hit tomorrow
  • Options activity in SBUX
  • Copper breaking out to the upside
  • Capital spending resurgence in tech evidence IBM, MSFT, SAP, JNPR, SNDK
  • MRVL has lagged and will probably catch up
  • Solar trades are real: LDK, SPWR, TSL
  • US Infrastructure replacement plays, $120b will be spent this year, trades: FLR, MDR, JEC, for Europe: EON, Enel, Endesa
  • Uranium prices dropping, stay away from CCJ and USU for a while, also RIO
  • Final trade: MSFT, AAPL, ABV, IBM

Sector summary from Google finance July 19, 2007

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 18

  • Stay away from financials
  • IBM good stock to own going forward
  • EBAY guidance inline so it didn't move higher
  • Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper move higher on weaker dollar
  • KMT a derivative mining play
  • COP or CVX both good to own
  • GOOG might slide after earnings
  • MSFT may finally start moving looking at INTC and HPQ
  • Rail stocks worked well today despite down market, trades KCS and TRN
  • Final trade: MSFT, BIIB, CX, IBM

Sector summary from Google finance July 18, 2007

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 17

  • INTC great earnings but it pulled back AH
  • YHOO dropped after earnings
  • Buy dip in financials
  • Gas prices dropping, crude pricing rising, trade COP
  • Dow is going up due to global economic growth
  • Rates in Brazil going down, trades: BBD, ITU
  • Stay away from big pharma PFE, WYE and large cap biotechs DNA, and get BIIB, GILD, AMLN
  • Chemical take over targets: CE, LZ, EMN
  • Plays on baby boomers: ZMH call activity due to take over speculation
  • Final trade: INTC, WWE, TKC

Sector summary from Google finance July 17, 2007

Monday, July 16, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 16

  • INTC might crush the numbers
  • International exposure for UTX and KO having currency benefit
  • ASML ready to go higher
  • MCD international play 12% growth in Europe
  • MAT bodes well for HAS
  • CCJ and USU pulling back, wait for a better buy point
  • Lumber names are good: WY, PCL, RYN
  • Follow the smart money: Bill Ackman, Nelson Peltz
  • Refining capacity coming back online and summer driving season almost half over, margins have dropped from $37 a barrel to $15 a barrel, get out of refiners and into integrated oil first COP, then CVX and XOM
  • Trading India: IBN
  • Final trade: INTC, UTX, SKX, VIP

Sector summary from Google finance July 16, 2007

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Wind Power

This story contains references to some wind power related companies.

And here is the link to the WSJ story on windmill shortage.

Friday, July 13, 2007

Cramer's Game Plan For Next Week

  • Tuesday
    • KO due to international sales
    • INTC a bit played out, can get to $27
  • Wednesday
    • UTX is Rest of the World play and will probably have better than expected (BTE) earnings
    • FCX
    • HON not done going up
    • JCI only autos stock
  • Friday
    • CAT
    • SLB the best BTE play

Apart from the next weeks earnings plays here are some other stocks:
  • TEX infrastructure and machinery play which is the best performing group (includes FWLT, SGR, FLR, MDR, MTW, JEC)
  • "$80 to $120" club members: BA, CAT, COP, APD, ENR, APA, TEX

Fast Money Recap July 13

  • Next week is options expiration week
  • Great companies to look at AA, JOYG, UTX, HON, MMM, JCI, GE, CAT, DE, GOOG, AAPL, MCD, HPQ
  • Also XOM, COP, FLR, MDR, JEC, CVX
  • Video games stocks: ATVI, MSFT, DIS, NVDA, sell SNE
  • Rumor that Warren Buffet is interested in HOV but USG could be an option
  • Huge volume in LAZ could mean a take over candidate
  • ISIL and SNDK expecting estimates beat
  • Financials earnings plays next week: MER, USB, PJC
  • Tech earnings plays next week: INTC (possible around $25), BRCM, SNDK, EMC
  • Wireless broadband trade: FTWR (extremely risky could go to zero or 15 times in next few years)
  • Scenario: Due to the falling dollar, foreign companies start buying US companies en masse. Buy and sell? Buy US manufacturing companies like DE, ITW, CMI, sell ERIC, NOK. Grade B+
  • Scenario: Oil, which has weakened in the latter part of the last four years, follows this predictable pattern again and drops to $60. Buy and sell? Sell expensive oil stocks OXY, BP, RDSA, XOM, CVX, buy gold, oil futures and short dollar, buy discount retailers WMT, COST. Grade A
  • Scenario: Yahoo buys Facebook. Buy and sell? Buy YHOO, sell Match.com's parent IDC, TWX and GOOG (Yahoo will get more add dollars). Grade B-
  • Final trade: TGT

Sector summary from Google finance July 13, 2007

Thursday, July 12, 2007

June Same Store Sales


Overall June same store sales rose 2.6% vs estimates of 2%. In June 2006 sale were up 3.1%. The average over the past 6 months has been 2.9%.

Fast Money Recap July 12

  • Semis stocks for H2 of 2007
  • Energy and materials working now
  • Global wireless boom: ALVR, CHL, VOD, AMX, NIHD
  • MCD is doing particularly well due to Japan
  • TM, NTODY, HMC, SNE plays on weak Yen
  • Gold breaking out
  • DXC and HMC plays on diesel
  • MU will probably won't be participating in the tech rally due to squeezed margins
  • Final trade: MCD, NYB, EMC

Sector summary from Google finance July 12, 2007

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 11

  • Dollar at 15 year low, companies that could benefit from that include GILD, CELG, AAPL, CAT, PCP, XLK
  • Oil trades: CVX, COP, take profits on refiners
  • Final trade: Integrated oils, EMC, PDLI, SKS

Sector summary from Google finance July 11, 2007

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 10

  • Dow down 145 points on housing and subprime fears
  • XLU and XLE may be good bets here
  • Unusual options activity in CSC
  • Positive options activity in SYMC
  • Companies expected to perform well from June SSS numbers are COST, TGT
  • Avoid specialty retailers ANF and BEBE
  • Buy SKS and COST on dips
  • Final trade: GLD, COP, BIIB, ERTS

Sector summary from Google finance July 10, 2007

Monday, July 9, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 9

  • Resource rally, Q3 predicted to be strong, anything global exposure ripping
  • AA's earnings weren't that bad, RTP might take over both AA and AL
  • JNJ and COP buybacks, COP still a great play
  • CEOs of the world see this a cheap stock market
  • IBM moved higher after buyback announcement
  • Trades of HIL: CHH, HOT
  • GLD, Copper and SLV, MDG take over play
  • Heat wave plays: GE, EMCR, EXC, ETR, CEG
  • Heat wave will help retailers clear out the summer inventory an improve margins
  • BA 787 Dreamliner, in theory 20% fuel efficient due to carbon fiber composite, plays on big suppliers: KALU, GE
  • Also EADS is a play
  • "Transformers" biggest non-sequel ever, trades: HAS
  • INTC and SNDK earnings next week, SMH ripping, TXN benefiting, other trades: DELL, HPQ, NVDA
  • EWY South Korea ETF
  • Final trade: HAS, EMC, KFT, KEP

Sector summary from Google finance July 9, 2007

Sunday, July 8, 2007

Some WSJ stories

An interesting story on windmill shortage.

Another alarming piece on oil supply and demand based on IEA's report.

Fast Money Recap July 6

  • 78m baby boomers, 30% of population, spending power $2t, trades: ZMH, MRK, MEDI, MO, SYK, BMY, LLY, HCR, SRZ, BYD, WB
  • Global warming trades: CCJ, USU, FLR, XOM, TM, ORA
  • Digital revolution trades: AAPL, NTODY, NVDA, NOK, NILE, AMZN, EMC, GOOG
  • Security trades: LLL, DRS, TIE, FRPT, ATK, CSCO, SWHC, HON, ID, COGT
  • Obesity trades: MCD, NTRI, NKE, WTW, OREX, AMLN, ISIS, PEP
  • Final trade: DKS, UA, TM, ZMH, GOOG

Sector summary from Google finance July 6, 2007

Thursday, July 5, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 5

  • Japan - 2nd largest economy, ETFs: EWJ, VPL, DFJ, important stocks: TM, SNE, CAJ, HMC
  • Germany - 3rd largest economy, driver of EU, important stocks: DCX, DB, SI, BAY, SAP, ETFs: EWG
  • UK - stocks: GSK, IMT, UU, TESO, BP, AZN, VOD, ETFs: EWU
  • France - stocks: SZE, VE, Areva, TOT, SNY, AXA, ETFs: EWQ
  • Italy - stocks: TI, E, EN, FIA, ETFs: EWI
  • Canada - stocks: ECA, SU, AL, RY, Boardwalk REIT, ETFs: EWC
  • China - 4th largest economy, priced for growth, richly priced that is, stocks: PTR, CHL, LFC, BIDU, ETFs: FXI, PGJ, EWH
  • India - stocks: WIT, INFY, TTM, IBN, BRIC funds
  • Russia - stocks: MTL, MTB, VIP, ETFs: TRF, RSX
  • Brazil - stocks: RIO, PZE, BBD, ABV, ETFs: EWZ
  • Mexico - stocks: AMX, CX, TV, TMX, ETFs: EWW
  • Australia - ETFs: EWA, stocks: BHP, NAB, WBK, ANZ, RIN, AWC
  • Africa - stocks: AAUK
  • South Korea - ETFs: EWY, stocks: WF, SKM, PKX, HANA, KB, KEP, KTC
  • Israel - ETFs: ISL, stocks: TEVA, CHKP, CEL, BSI, XOM
  • Switzerland - ETFs: EWL, stocks: CS, ABB, NVS, UBS
  • Greece - stocks: NBG, TNP, DRYS, DSX
  • Taiwan - ETFs: EWT, stocks: TSM, CHT, ASX, AUO
  • New Zealand - stocks: NZT
  • Final trade on global growth: INTC, BTU, CAT, HPQ

Sector summary from Google finance July 5, 2007

Wednesday, July 4, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 3

  • Automobile makers do well in low interest environment, F is better than GM right now
  • DA is a buy
  • Oil at $71.20, own energy though XLE, oil on the way to $80 may be higher
  • OIH provides exposure to oil services sector
  • Big pharma crushing biotechs lately, BMY better than AMGN
  • Trades on "Transformers" movie: DIS
  • Don't short in a quite market and before holidays
  • Security plays: DRS, LLL, FRPT, ATK
  • Lighten upon BIDU and RIMM
  • Final trade: DIS, HLT, FCX, CVX

Sector summary from Google finance July 3, 2007

Monday, July 2, 2007

Performance of emerging markets in Q2

Fast Money Recap July 2

  • Weak dollar, lots of deals, commodity prices up, steel and energy started moving, yields dropped
  • Private equity is all ok
  • FXE dollar trade
  • Airlines in trouble, 91% increase in cancellations and flights delayed 45 minutes or more up 61% YOY, sell regional airlines
  • JNPR infrastructure supplier behind T and other operators
  • iPhone component makers: Samsung, IFX, MRVL, TXN, NSM
  • Ag plays still working: TNH, MOS, AGU, POT, MON
  • Final trade: MCD, ZQK, FCX, SNCR

Fast Money Recap July 2

Sector summary from Google finance July 2, 2007

Sunday, July 1, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 29

  • Going into next quarter, oil is great (XLE), materials and miners (VMC, FCX) are great, engineering stocks (FLR, SGR, MDR), CSCO great, own semis, stay out of financials, FXI performing very well, also OIH
  • Plays on foreign companies acquiring US companies: UNH, CI
  • HON could break up, so can GE , TWX, SNE
  • Get out of NFLX and BBI
  • iPhone trades: VOD currently valued better than T, RIMM, NOK
  • Scenario: Oil goes to $80 a barrel. Buy and sell? Energy SPDR ETF, drilling company GSF, to TIPS to hedge against inflation, alternate energy company ESLR, TM for hybrid technology, sell American car companies GM and F, sell travel related companies CAL, MAR, HTZ. Grade: A
  • Scenario: FCC approves SIRI and XMSR merger. Buy and sell? Buy XMSR and short SIRI, longer term short the combined company and long terrestrial radio CCU and AAPL for iPod. Grade B
  • Scenario: A private equity firm buys MGM. Buy and sell? Buy BOYD, IGT, WMS, a straddle on TRMP and sell UBET. Grade B-, because no mention of Kirk Kerkorian, Vegas and/or Macau
  • Correction in financials, if want to buy then AFL, HSBA which are Asian insurance plays, the goto stocks are technology ORCL, DELL, INTC, MSFT, JNPR also the industrials SPDR is XLI, JOYG a coal play, BIDU on China, FDX has gone lower this year and estimates are low, also UNH
  • Final trade: INTC, HPQ, DELL, CHL, CHU, BIDU, SOHU, CSCO, DIS

Sector summary from Google Finance June 29, 2007