- Techs performed well JNPR, SNDK, BRCM, MRVL
- Financials performing bad LEH, GS
- Energy stocks still a buy: TOT, COP
- Scenario: Another major investment bank says it has to close a hedge fund because subprime securities in the fund are deemed virtually worthless. Buy and sell? Short major investment banks because e.g. BSC dropped 4% in AH trading after announcement, short C, JPM, sell treasuries, Grade: A-, also include BX because financing private equity deals will become more expensive, LEH would be in trouble if this scenario unfolds
- Scenario: Another steampipe in New York breaks and in the days that follow, cities from New York to Atlanta say they will double the amount of money they plan to spend to improve aging public works systems. Buy and sell? Buy engineering and construction firms FLR and SGR, also CAT as the US construction is what it needs, because of the materials needed the prices of steel and copper will go higher so buy NUE, also MDR for power grid. Grade: A
- Scenario: Retail deal making heats up as KKR buys M and Eddie Lampert's SHLD buys SWY. Buy and sell? Short look at KSS and DDS as take over targets, also SVU is good, longer term the take over mania will drop and short these, and for longer term buy SHLD and WMT for management. Grade: A-
- Scenario: Turkey's prime minister wins a majority of seats in parliamentary elections Sunday. He then decides to invade Northern Iraq to put down Kuridsh guerrillas there. Buy and sell? Sell Turkish sovereigns, intermediate yields are only between 6 and 7% as conservative investors head for the door, buy energy stocks which include APA trading at 11x earnings, great cash flow generation, also HLX which has off shore reserves. Grade: B
- Final trade: MSFT, CLX, ZMH, RDC, SWC
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Fast Money Recap July 20
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