Monday, March 23, 2009

Where is $SPX heading?

This is 60 day $SPX chart on 5 minute time frame. The green curve is 5 day moving average.

I wonder why the anchors on any business news channel keep repeating the index numbers and gains over and over again. I can read that off the screen, thank you, tell me something I don't know.

Anyhow, question is what can we expect from S&P 500 right now. The strength and breadth of today's action makes me think that this rally might last for a few days. After pushing through resistance around 804, the next stop seems to be around 870, where it could run into resistance.

I am watching to following to get a sense of what to expect:
  1. Resistance levels
  2. 5 day moving average
  3. Trend line (the lower trend line after it broke the upper one)
Other indicators to watch are market breadth and volume.

If S&P pushes through 870 level, which is quite possible looking at the bearishness I noticed during the past couple of weeks, then the next stop is around 940. I expect S&P to lose steam somewhere between 870 and 940 and to start trading within this range. The uptrend can end fast if the earnings start coming below expectations.

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