Index ETF and SPDR returns for May 14

Disclaimer: Long position on GLD, short position in SPY and XLF.

SPY, QQQ and IWM

SPY, which closed almost at the bottom of the trend channel yesterday moved back into the channel today. The trend break still not confirm yet.



Both QQQQ and IWM have not only broken their trend lines, but also were unable to hold above the short-term supports just before the close.

Disclaimer: Short position in SPY.

Index ETF and SPDR returns for May 13

Disclaimer: Long position on GLD.

Inverted head and shoulders in GLD.

Going through the daily chart of GLD, it just dawned on me that there is an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Since the price prior to the left shoulder was below the shoulder and it had a huge run up to the shoulder, I am not sure if this could be considered a valid tradable pattern.

Disclaimer: Long position on GLD.

SPY possibly and IWM confirmed broke out of uptrend channel

SPY closed today just at the bottom of the trend channel. After today's 2.52% drop, it might pop tomorrow and the confirmation of broken uptrend might be the day after. It also broke through short-term support around 89.75. Notice the 5 day moving average (yellow curve), which has turned downward. Also notice MACD at the bottom which is showing negative divergence (meaning downward move is accelerating).


IWM confirmed that the uptrend is broken (this was signaled yesterday). Today it broke through short-term support around 48.25. The state of 5 day moving average and MACD is similar to SPY's, mentioned above.

Disclaimer: No position in any of the mentioned securities.

Index ETF and SPDR returns for May 12

XLF has been the worst performer for the second day in a row among sector SPDRs.

Disclaimer: Long position on GLD.

Russell2000 possibly broke the trend channel today

Also note MACD sell signal on daily time frame.

Disclaimer: No position in mentioned security.

Index ETF and SPDR returns for May 11

Today as usual financials and technology sectors swapped positions on the return ranking, where technology being the best performing while financials being the worst. One thing to note was lower volume.

Disclaimer: Long position in GLD and, short position in XLF and SPY.

Weekly Asset Returns (05/08)

Here are the asset returns for the last week (courtesy of WSJ). The numbers show decreasing risk aversion of investors, where crude oil, REITs and emerging market stocks being the best performers and the dollar being the worst.

Here are the returns for the major equity index ETFs and sector SPDRs. Financials are still going strong.

Disclaimer: Long position in GLD and XLE, and short position on SPY.

Sector Relative Strengh

This chart shows the sector relative strength (relative to S&P500) since a market bottom on March 9. The way I have computed the data is as follows: starting with March 9, each day's sector SPDR value is divided by SPY. This value is then divided by the value on March 9 (normalization). The primary purpose is to get an idea of how sector performance compares to each other and to broader market.

As you can see, XLF has significantly outperformed every other sector and the S&P500 by a wide margin. Then are 2 cluster: one consists of XLB, XLY and XLI, which have outperformed S&P500 to some extent.

XLK is in the middle and has closely tracked S&P500 till recently and is lagging behind now.

The second cluster includes XLE, XLP, XLU and XLV. Out of these the performance of XLE has started showing confirmed improvement.

Disclaimer: Long position in XLE.

Index ETF and SPDR returns for May 7

Today the best performing sector was healthcare while the worst performing was technology. Basic materials and financials were also quite weak.

Disclaimer: Long position in GLD and XLE.

QQQQ trendline possibly broken

QQQQ may have broken below its trendline. The reason I use "may have" is that trendlines are not unique, meaning we can draw them in a variety of ways. They are primarily used as guidelines. Also, MACD is showing slight negative divergence, after a series of progressively weak up moves.

SPY is still within its trend channel. Whether it will also break below the channel remains to be seen. There is possibly short term support around 87. MACD is also showing slight weakening of the trend. Corey Rosenbloom pointed out a bearish pattern in SPY, which is a doji, followed by a hanging man, followed by a bearish engulfing candle.

On a positive note XLV broke above its trading range. This indicates investor rotation out of recently strong sectors like financials, basic materials and technology into more defensive sectors like healthcare.

Disclaimer: No current position in QQQQ, SPY or XLV.

Index ETF and SPDR returns

Compiled here are returns to the index ETFs and sector SPDRs. These include daily returns over the last 5 trading days and also cumulative 5, 15 and 50 day returns. The highlighted cells mark the SPDR showing the highest and lowest return. The primary purpose is to get some insight into the leading and lagging sectors.

Update: I found an error in my script for calculating returns, which has been fixed and the snapshot given above has been updated.

UNG trend line broken at last, GLD also above trend line

After more than 10 months of decline while religiously following the downward trend line, UNG finally managed to break above it today. The 5 DMA has crossed 15 DMA, which has flattened out. The closing price is $0.24 away from 50 DMA.


GLD also broke through the downward trend line but average volume has declined over the past 2 months. Its 5 DMA is above 15 DMA and today's closing price is just above 50 DMA.

Disclaimer: No position in any of mentioned securities.

Some interesting charts.

UNG price seems to be approaching is (downward) trend line, which it has been faithfully following since July 2008. Whether it will be able to break the trend line and hold above it remains to be seen. One recent change is the increase in volume but the 50 DMA is still 10% higher the price.

USO has already broken the down trend it has followed all of April.

XLF has already broken through resistance around 11.25 and has closed above it for the past 2 trading days. It sure can fall back below it but considering current market strength it seems somewhat unlikely for now.

Same is the case with T, MBT and FMCN. TV is just at its resistance (around 17.10).

Disclaimer: Long position in XLF.

Cree, Inc chart

Over the weekend I was scanning some charts and I stumbled upon Cree, whose stock has shown remarkable strength over the last 5 months. In the above chart the 3 moving averages are 5, 15 and 50 day. The 5 DMA has just crossed the 15 DMA and both are above the 50 DMA.

This stock did get affected by the market sell off last year but its 52 week low was on 12/05/2008, way before rest of the market. Since then it has steadily climbed and the close price on Friday was $27.71, very close to the 52 week high of $29. The chart also shows cup with handle formation which is a bullish sign. The MACD is also showing a possible buy signal coming up. Zack's Investment Research mentioned CREE as Bull of Day on May 1.

Disclaimer: No current position in the mentioned security.

Weekly Asset Returns and New SMA Crossovers (05/01)

Given below are the asset class returns for the week, courtesy of Wall Street Journal:

And here are the sector returns for week measured using sector SPDRs:I have updated the stock scanner to looks for 5 and 15 SMA crossover and use 50 day average volume of more than 1million shares as the first filter. Here are the results of the scan over S&P500:

Bullish: AA AMD BTU CMS CL D DTE EXC GIS GNW HIG HNZ HUM ICE MDT MCHP PEG PGN PKI SRE T TE VRSN WFR WIN XOM

Bearish: AIZ AVB CA CCL CTAS DFS EQR GLW HCBK KSS MMC MO MYL PAYX PGR SPLS VMC

Please note that moving average crossovers usually happen on up days and majority of stocks pullback somewhat after that. Timing the buy/sell decision will probably require further analysis (technical and/or fundamental) whether you are looking for short-term trade or a long-term position.

Disclaimer: No position in any of the mentioned securities.