Saturday, June 16, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 15

  • CPI numbers good
  • Companies that exploded are the ones with global exposure
  • Next week there are no significant economic numbers so rally might fade towards mid-week
  • Treasury yields have had 50 basis point move and stocks have not factored that in yet and the effect can be 5-10%
  • Look at ETF DBA for commodities exposure (Fast Money AG plays are up 59% over the year compared to 18% for S&P500)
  • This is a great environment for emerging market stocks ticker EEM
  • GS upgraded INTC but NVDA isn't a cheap stock anymore but it is probably worth its multiple for now
  • The rally over the last 3 years is primarily because of energy sector, as oil goes up a lot of companies make more money
  • HOC is richly valued right now compared to COP so it is advisable to take profits
  • MRO could be a great stock going forward
  • Possible acquisition among brokers - OXPS, NITE, JEF, TRAD, IBKR
  • JEF is not only a take over play but also a strong company
  • CHTR is 250% last year
  • Scenario: After a pause today surging food prices and a too hot Chinese economy reignite inflation fears and the 10 yr treasury yield jumps up to the evil 6% number, buy and sell? First thing is to short REITs VNO, BXP and GGP, these have grown most over the last 3 years so they'll be the most vulnerable, for equities need to play safe so put money in high quality large cap dividend yielding stocks like MO, GE, C also wanna go long FIS, GS and SHLD. Grade: B
  • Scenario: Al-Sadr galvanizes support for the Iraqi parliament, ousts the current government and seizes control of the country, buy and sell? In the short run get out of HAL so short HAL and KBR, HAL's spin off because of their exposure in Iraq, the sole reaction would be downturn in US market, so short the S&P ETF and short the dollar, oil prices will go up with uncertainty in the Middle East, so go long on oil futures, buy CVX and XOM, buy gold, in the longer term buy military contractors such as GD, NOC and LMT. Grade: A
  • Scenario: INTC buys NVDA, buy and sell? Everybody is talking about INTC so go short INTC and long NVDA based on the traditional merger arbitrage transaction, long term go long on both NVDA and INTC but sell AMD, INTC will benefit from acquiring NVDA's best of breed in graphics porcessing and will close the gap from lost market share to AMD, INTC will also indirectly benefit from AMD's decision to outsource chip making. Grade: B+
  • Trade update: Sell MTL, CTRN has room to $45 and has a huge short interest, For LZB MLF Investments was a huge short seller, they turned buyer in Dec, sell WGO, buy MGM
  • Final trade: TIE, MS, ADBE

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Good words.