Friday, June 8, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 8

  • Classic Friday reversal
  • Expect the market to be up or down 100-200 points
  • Nothing has fundamentally changed this week
  • Chip stock exploded: NSM, KLAC, AMAT, XLNX
  • NVDA might be acquired or do a joint thing with INTC
  • After the news about possible merger/acquisition of X, look for stock that have been underperforming e.g. RYI, MTL
  • Trades on weaker Yen include SNE, TM
  • Gold plunged 4%
  • Stick with winners, which opened higher yesterday but sold off, they recovered today what they lost yesterday
  • Among Russian companies Lukoil and Gazprom are buy
  • Over the past few weeks emerging markets have become better plays than before and development markets have slipped
  • Next week brokers are starting earnings announcements, Monday morning start buying investment banks, ride upto GS earnings and sell on the eve of GS earnings (according to Cramer don't buy if bond yields remain above 5%)
  • Scenario: Coke and Pepsi decide to follow Jones Soda's lead to switch from high fructose corn syrup to pure cane sugar. Buy and sell: Neutral Pepsi because of their larger product base, but sell Coke because this will have a negative impact on their cost structure as sugar is not only more expensive but it also takes more amount to get the same level of sweetness, sell HFCS producers like ADM and Corn Products International, which get 18% sales from beverage companies, buy sugar suppliers like Imperial Sugar in US and a Brazilian company called Cozi N SA ??, they are the largest suger processor in the world and will greatly benefit from this trend: Grade A, additionally a long position on General Mills because they already raised prices due to high price of corn
  • Scenario: The G8 meeting concludes and the Japanese finance minister expresses a desire to diversify the country's foreign reserves. Buy and sell: Japan will be moving money out of the US treasuries, so go short the US treasuries, it is going to put a lot of pressure on the dollar so go short the dollar index, where are they going? they are going to China, China is investing in Black Stone Group, so Japan will follow suit, buy FXI, DXELX, also PTR. Grade B+, when diversifying from dollar, at least go into gold, treasuries are a long term trade so don't need to sell
  • Scenario: A rare disease is found in a series of cows in the midwest, requiring the elimination of 20% of our cattle. Buy and sell: short grain, short Danon, Dean Foods, Tyson, on retail side short McDonald, Burger King, Ruth Chris. Grade B, include futures in the trades
  • Scenario: Disney comes out and says that it is going to release major motion pictures simultaneously on DVDs. Buy and sell: This is a milestone on the way to the direct delivery of digital media to the end user, so buy Apple becuause it has licensing agreement with Disney to distribute content online, second also buy Juniper and Akamai, since online delivery of digital media will increase the demand for storage and network capacity significantly, sell weak video chains. Grade A
  • GILD was recommended last week but it had a couple of downgrades, GA still likes it
  • CLF was recommended by PN, stock is down, he wasn't to stay long but suggested buying put for protection
  • JM recommended selling PALM because he didn't think there is going to be a buyout, he still recommends to stay away
  • Final trades: MBT, short EEM, TIVO, MS

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