VMWare IPO

From the CEO's talk at the roadshow:

• Virtualization has established itself as a better way to run computer systems
• VMWare has been developing under the radar
• A platform layer at the bottom of the software stack
• Take advantage of it without changing any of the existing software
• Non-distruptive technology with disruptive effect
• 5000 partners with multiple tiers
• Vision: this software will become ubiquitous
• Brought mainframe class functionality and robustness to commodity systems
• 3000+ employees
• 40% engineers have advanced degrees
• 100% Fortune 100 and 84% Fortune 1000 companies
• Doubled every year
• $1B+ run rate
• Previously operating system and software has had one-to-one relationship with the computer system e.g. SQL server, Exchange server etc
• Servers were used around 35%, but with virutalization the utilization rate is around 85%
• Hardware independence property
• The virtual machine can be migrated to another physical system without any service disruption
• Results include high availability, full disaster recovery, load balancing
• For a data center the space costs around $1000 sq foot and $560 of power and cooling expenses per server per year
  
• A company example includes a utility which reduced the number of servers from 1000 to 80, 200 server racks to 10
• Means 70-80% reduction in datacenter space
  
• The capex reduction pays for the VMWare product in a short time
• IDC estimates that in 2005 6.4 million Intel/AMD based servers were shipped out of which 5% were virtualized and in 2010 8.7 million servers will be shipped and 17% of those are going to be virtualized meaning a CAGR of 36%, this doesn't include the currently installed servers that will be virtualized
  
• Market expansion estimates for 2010 by IDC: Disaster recovery ($8.2bil), Clustering and availability ($2.4bil), Virtual client computing ($3.3bil), Configuration and change management ($3.5bil), Security and vulnerability management ($4.0bil), Storage virtualization and management ($8.5bil)
• Currently only 8% of Intel/AMD market uses clustering
• Platform includes ESX server, which has 3 flavors: Starter Edition, Standard Edition, and Enterprise Edition
  
• Competition includes Microsoft whose product is expected to hit market in late 2008 and it will be compete with VMWare Starter Edition which has been in the market for 5 years
• Open source model where over 30 partners use the source code to add interoperability and functionality
  
• Partnering with processor developers like Intel (since 1998) to assist in making virtualization work better, and also working with companies like Cisco (since 2006) to make the products work seamlessly over the network
• Partnering with system vendors which provide a channel to market
• High transaction business model, which help monitor progress
  
• Current driver of IT infrastructure is ways to contain and reduce cost
• Finacials:
• 56% sales domestic, 44% international, over time expected to get 50-50
• 5000 channel partners, 1000 in past year
• High ROI business for customers
• Immediate return from capital perspective
• Over 70% CAGR in operating profit, excludes stock based compensation and amortization
  
• Intend to keep operating margin in mid-20% range
• Cash flow from operations increased 5x over past 3 years
• Primary use is reinvestment
• $1.2bil run rate

Cramer's Buy List

• Soft goods with good growth overseas. Pepsi's (PEP) now the best. Colgate (CL), after the quarter. I like Clorox (CLX). Kimberly-Clark's (KMB) now good.

• Machinery, metal and mining stocks, the infrastructure you need to take advantage of them -- and what transports them to overseas. I don't include coal because the green movement has stopped it for now and the government has given up supporting coal -- at least, until it realizes it has no choice. Caterpillar's (CAT) right again. Foster Wheeler (FWLT) on a pullback, KBR (KBR) on a pullback, McDermott (MDR) after the quarter, Fluor (FLR), CB&I (CBI), Jacobs (JEC), Manitowoc (MTW), Terex (TEX).

• Oil -- but not gas, unless we get some sort of disruption of supply for the latter. Extracting oil anywhere but North America is the strongest area, followed by the integrated oils. Will natural gas come back? Everything will come back, but this is a checklist of what can be bought now. Transocean (RIG) on a pullback, Halliburton (HAL) on a pullback, Schlumberger (SLB) on a pullback, Conoco (COP) and Chevron (CVX) now. XTO (XTO) for those willing to wait, as this one is the best wildcatters in the world. Apache's (APA) good too.

• Tech that's international that does well as part of the back-to-school and holiday buildup. Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Texas Instruments (TXN), Adobe (ADBE) all good.

• Drugs that do lots of business overseas. Merck (MRK), Schering (SGP) and Lilly (LLY) all good.

• Health care cost containment. Think Medco (MHS) and CVS (CVS).

• Aerospace and defense. Aerospace because demand is international with a new product cycle, and defense because we now know the war drags on, no matter what. Alliant Tech (ATK) is the best there, now that we have seen Lockheed Martin (LMT). I would still buy Lockheed and L-3 (LLL) and Raytheon (RTN). Boeing (BA) works. So does Riverbed (RVBD).

• The Web. Google's (GOOG) been punished long enough. Growth is too great. Omniture (OMTR) and Level 3 (LVLT) are the preferred specs.

• Ag. Be careful about a robust corn crop, but this works into the election. Deere (DE), Bunge (BG), Monsanto (MON).

• Telco infrastructure. They need to build. They can't help it. They have starved their infrastructure -- check Noah Blackstein's excellent piece from Tuesday. Cisco (CSCO), Ciena (CIEN), Juniper (JNPR) and even Sycamore (SCMR) (that's how strong this is now).

Foreign Telecom Stocks Traded In US

• Millicom International Cellular (MICC)
• America Movil (AMX)
• Chinal Mobile (CHL)
• VimpelCom (VIP)
• Mobile Telesystems (MBT)
• TIM Participacoes (TSU)
• Telemig (TMB)
• SK Telecom (SKM)
• Turkcell (TKC)
  

Fast Money Recap July 26

• Today's decline is not a one day event
• Financials worst performing industry in S&P
• Buy GS at $190, avoid JMP, and short XLF as the pair trade
• Get out of energy stocks except drillers (OIH)
• Volatility in S&P has gone higher compared to volatility in NASDAQ, so NASDAQ is being considered safer
• Companies that have gone up on takeover speculation but are most vulnerable to a pullback: TGT, WEN, M, HOT, DDS, X, NUE
• ETFs to get long now: DVY, PID, XLP
• Warren Buffet, Carl Ichan and Nelson Peltz are buying KFT
• Final trade: COST, MYGN, DELL, GS
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 26, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 25

• Weakness in financials XLF isn't over yet
• Don't chase BIDU after earnings
• Buy integrated oils only if they hold their production levels
• Rails hence NSC have had a good run, its time to take profits, longer term buy but sell short term
• This isn't right time to get into BA, wait for pullback
• Buy DCX and TM, both are fuel efficient car makers
• Don't get into NTDOY right now
• Big pharma making substantial move, GSK and MRK still a buy
• MCD is a buy till there is a disparity between their stores
• MRT and RUTH report next week, both are in high end dining and are levered to corporate customers which are not affected by price, MRT is better as they are able to manage meat cost which is up 30% over the past year
• Final trade: WFR, HOG, BMY
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 25, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 24

• Will post later
  

Fast Money Recap July 23

• Plays off RIG-GSF deal: DO, RDC, NBR, LTR
• AMLN a play on great diabetes drug pipeline and take over speculation
• When oil touches $100, trades: stay out of airlines and homebuilders, long integrated oils XOM, CVX, COP, BP, Shell, Suncor if it goes past $100, people will stay home so tech: HPQ, DELL, INTC, online shopping: FDX, AMZN, EBAY, oil companies with more money fix up refineries etc so JEC, solar energy: STP and other
• EWT performing great, Taiwan has phenomenal growth
• Final trade: MSFT, SLT, AXP, GOOG
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 23, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 20

• Techs performed well JNPR, SNDK, BRCM, MRVL
• Financials performing bad LEH, GS
• Energy stocks still a buy: TOT, COP
• Scenario: Another major investment bank says it has to close a hedge fund because subprime securities in the fund are deemed virtually worthless. Buy and sell? Short major investment banks because e.g. BSC dropped 4% in AH trading after announcement, short C, JPM, sell treasuries, Grade: A-, also include BX because financing private equity deals will become more expensive, LEH would be in trouble if this scenario unfolds
• Scenario: Another steampipe in New York breaks and in the days that follow, cities from New York to Atlanta say they will double the amount of money they plan to spend to improve aging public works systems. Buy and sell? Buy engineering and construction firms FLR and SGR, also CAT as the US construction is what it needs, because of the materials needed the prices of steel and copper will go higher so buy NUE, also MDR for power grid. Grade: A
• Scenario: Retail deal making heats up as KKR buys M and Eddie Lampert's SHLD buys SWY. Buy and sell? Short look at KSS and DDS as take over targets, also SVU is good, longer term the take over mania will drop and short these, and for longer term buy SHLD and WMT for management. Grade: A-
• Scenario: Turkey's prime minister wins a majority of seats in parliamentary elections Sunday. He then decides to invade Northern Iraq to put down Kuridsh guerrillas there. Buy and sell? Sell Turkish sovereigns, intermediate yields are only between 6 and 7% as conservative investors head for the door, buy energy stocks which include APA trading at 11x earnings, great cash flow generation, also HLX which has off shore reserves. Grade: B
• Final trade: MSFT, CLX, ZMH, RDC, SWC
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 20, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 19

• GOOG missed earnings second time, first time missed caused a 10% decline in stock, probably NASDAQ will take hit tomorrow
• Options activity in SBUX
• Copper breaking out to the upside
• Capital spending resurgence in tech evidence IBM, MSFT, SAP, JNPR, SNDK
• MRVL has lagged and will probably catch up
• Solar trades are real: LDK, SPWR, TSL
• US Infrastructure replacement plays, $120b will be spent this year, trades: FLR, MDR, JEC, for Europe: EON, Enel, Endesa
• Uranium prices dropping, stay away from CCJ and USU for a while, also RIO
• Final trade: MSFT, AAPL, ABV, IBM
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 19, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 18

• Stay away from financials
• IBM good stock to own going forward
• EBAY guidance inline so it didn't move higher
• Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper move higher on weaker dollar
  
• KMT a derivative mining play
• COP or CVX both good to own
• GOOG might slide after earnings
• MSFT may finally start moving looking at INTC and HPQ
  
• Rail stocks worked well today despite down market, trades KCS and TRN
• Final trade: MSFT, BIIB, CX, IBM
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 18, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 17

• INTC great earnings but it pulled back AH
• YHOO dropped after earnings
  
• Buy dip in financials
• Gas prices dropping, crude pricing rising, trade COP
• Dow is going up due to global economic growth
• Rates in Brazil going down, trades: BBD, ITU
• Stay away from big pharma PFE, WYE and large cap biotechs DNA, and get BIIB, GILD, AMLN
• Chemical take over targets: CE, LZ, EMN
• Plays on baby boomers: ZMH call activity due to take over speculation
• Final trade: INTC, WWE, TKC
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 17, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 16

• INTC might crush the numbers
  
• International exposure for UTX and KO having currency benefit
• ASML ready to go higher
• MCD international play 12% growth in Europe
• MAT bodes well for HAS
• CCJ and USU pulling back, wait for a better buy point
• Lumber names are good: WY, PCL, RYN
• Follow the smart money: Bill Ackman, Nelson Peltz
• Refining capacity coming back online and summer driving season almost half over, margins have dropped from $37 a barrel to $15 a barrel, get out of refiners and into integrated oil first COP, then CVX and XOM
• Trading India: IBN
• Final trade: INTC, UTX, SKX, VIP
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 16, 2007

Wind Power

This story contains references to some wind power related companies.

And here is the link to the WSJ story on windmill shortage.

Cramer's Game Plan For Next Week

• Tuesday
• KO due to international sales
• INTC a bit played out, can get to $27

• Wednesday
• UTX is Rest of the World play and will probably have better than expected (BTE) earnings
  
• FCX
• HON not done going up
• JCI only autos stock

• Friday
• CAT
• SLB the best BTE play

Apart from the next weeks earnings plays here are some other stocks:

• TEX infrastructure and machinery play which is the best performing group (includes FWLT, SGR, FLR, MDR, MTW, JEC)
• "$80 to $120" club members: BA, CAT, COP, APD, ENR, APA, TEX

Fast Money Recap July 13

• Next week is options expiration week
• Great companies to look at AA, JOYG, UTX, HON, MMM, JCI, GE, CAT, DE, GOOG, AAPL, MCD, HPQ
• Also XOM, COP, FLR, MDR, JEC, CVX
• Video games stocks: ATVI, MSFT, DIS, NVDA, sell SNE
• Rumor that Warren Buffet is interested in HOV but USG could be an option
• Huge volume in LAZ could mean a take over candidate
• ISIL and SNDK expecting estimates beat
• Financials earnings plays next week: MER, USB, PJC
• Tech earnings plays next week: INTC (possible around $25), BRCM, SNDK, EMC
• Wireless broadband trade: FTWR (extremely risky could go to zero or 15 times in next few years)
• Scenario: Due to the falling dollar, foreign companies start buying US companies en masse. Buy and sell? Buy US manufacturing companies like DE, ITW, CMI, sell ERIC, NOK. Grade B+
• Scenario: Oil, which has weakened in the latter part of the last four years, follows this predictable pattern again and drops to $60. Buy and sell? Sell expensive oil stocks OXY, BP, RDSA, XOM, CVX, buy gold, oil futures and short dollar, buy discount retailers WMT, COST. Grade A
• Scenario: Yahoo buys Facebook. Buy and sell? Buy YHOO, sell Match.com's parent IDC, TWX and GOOG (Yahoo will get more add dollars). Grade B-
• Final trade: TGT
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 13, 2007

June Same Store Sales

Overall June same store sales rose 2.6% vs estimates of 2%. In June 2006 sale were up 3.1%. The average over the past 6 months has been 2.9%.

Fast Money Recap July 12

• Semis stocks for H2 of 2007
• Energy and materials working now
• Global wireless boom: ALVR, CHL, VOD, AMX, NIHD
• MCD is doing particularly well due to Japan
  
• TM, NTODY, HMC, SNE plays on weak Yen
• Gold breaking out
  
• DXC and HMC plays on diesel
• MU will probably won't be participating in the tech rally due to squeezed margins
• Final trade: MCD, NYB, EMC
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 12, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 11

• Dollar at 15 year low, companies that could benefit from that include GILD, CELG, AAPL, CAT, PCP, XLK
• Oil trades: CVX, COP, take profits on refiners
• Final trade: Integrated oils, EMC, PDLI, SKS
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 11, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 10

• Dow down 145 points on housing and subprime fears
• XLU and XLE may be good bets here
• Unusual options activity in CSC
• Positive options activity in SYMC
• Companies expected to perform well from June SSS numbers are COST, TGT
• Avoid specialty retailers ANF and BEBE
• Buy SKS and COST on dips
• Final trade: GLD, COP, BIIB, ERTS
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 10, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 9

• Resource rally, Q3 predicted to be strong, anything global exposure ripping
• AA's earnings weren't that bad, RTP might take over both AA and AL
• JNJ and COP buybacks, COP still a great play
• CEOs of the world see this a cheap stock market
• IBM moved higher after buyback announcement
• Trades of HIL: CHH, HOT
• GLD, Copper and SLV, MDG take over play
• Heat wave plays: GE, EMCR, EXC, ETR, CEG
• Heat wave will help retailers clear out the summer inventory an improve margins
• BA 787 Dreamliner, in theory 20% fuel efficient due to carbon fiber composite, plays on big suppliers: KALU, GE
• Also EADS is a play
• "Transformers" biggest non-sequel ever, trades: HAS
• INTC and SNDK earnings next week, SMH ripping, TXN benefiting, other trades: DELL, HPQ, NVDA
  
• EWY South Korea ETF
• Final trade: HAS, EMC, KFT, KEP
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 9, 2007

Some WSJ stories

An interesting story on windmill shortage.

Another alarming piece on oil supply and demand based on IEA's report.

Fast Money Recap July 6

• 78m baby boomers, 30% of population, spending power $2t, trades: ZMH, MRK, MEDI, MO, SYK, BMY, LLY, HCR, SRZ, BYD, WB
• Global warming trades: CCJ, USU, FLR, XOM, TM, ORA
  
• Digital revolution trades: AAPL, NTODY, NVDA, NOK, NILE, AMZN, EMC, GOOG
• Security trades: LLL, DRS, TIE, FRPT, ATK, CSCO, SWHC, HON, ID, COGT
• Obesity trades: MCD, NTRI, NKE, WTW, OREX, AMLN, ISIS, PEP
• Final trade: DKS, UA, TM, ZMH, GOOG
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 6, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 5

• Japan - 2nd largest economy, ETFs: EWJ, VPL, DFJ, important stocks: TM, SNE, CAJ, HMC
  
• Germany - 3rd largest economy, driver of EU, important stocks: DCX, DB, SI, BAY, SAP, ETFs: EWG
• UK - stocks: GSK, IMT, UU, TESO, BP, AZN, VOD, ETFs: EWU
• France - stocks: SZE, VE, Areva, TOT, SNY, AXA, ETFs: EWQ
• Italy - stocks: TI, E, EN, FIA, ETFs: EWI
• Canada - stocks: ECA, SU, AL, RY, Boardwalk REIT, ETFs: EWC
• China - 4th largest economy, priced for growth, richly priced that is, stocks: PTR, CHL, LFC, BIDU, ETFs: FXI, PGJ, EWH
• India - stocks: WIT, INFY, TTM, IBN, BRIC funds
• Russia - stocks: MTL, MTB, VIP, ETFs: TRF, RSX
• Brazil - stocks: RIO, PZE, BBD, ABV, ETFs: EWZ
• Mexico - stocks: AMX, CX, TV, TMX, ETFs: EWW
• Australia - ETFs: EWA, stocks: BHP, NAB, WBK, ANZ, RIN, AWC
• Africa - stocks: AAUK
• South Korea - ETFs: EWY, stocks: WF, SKM, PKX, HANA, KB, KEP, KTC
• Israel - ETFs: ISL, stocks: TEVA, CHKP, CEL, BSI, XOM
• Switzerland - ETFs: EWL, stocks: CS, ABB, NVS, UBS
• Greece - stocks: NBG, TNP, DRYS, DSX
• Taiwan - ETFs: EWT, stocks: TSM, CHT, ASX, AUO
• New Zealand - stocks: NZT
• Final trade on global growth: INTC, BTU, CAT, HPQ
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 5, 2007

Fast Money Recap July 3

• Automobile makers do well in low interest environment, F is better than GM right now
• DA is a buy
• Oil at $71.20, own energy though XLE, oil on the way to $80 may be higher
• OIH provides exposure to oil services sector
• Big pharma crushing biotechs lately, BMY better than AMGN
• Trades on "Transformers" movie: DIS
• Don't short in a quite market and before holidays
  
• Security plays: DRS, LLL, FRPT, ATK
• Lighten upon BIDU and RIMM
• Final trade: DIS, HLT, FCX, CVX
  

Sector summary from Google finance July 3, 2007

Performance of emerging markets in Q2

Fast Money Recap July 2

• Weak dollar, lots of deals, commodity prices up, steel and energy started moving, yields dropped
• Private equity is all ok
• FXE dollar trade
• Airlines in trouble, 91% increase in cancellations and flights delayed 45 minutes or more up 61% YOY, sell regional airlines
• JNPR infrastructure supplier behind T and other operators
• iPhone component makers: Samsung, IFX, MRVL, TXN, NSM
• Ag plays still working: TNH, MOS, AGU, POT, MON
• Final trade: MCD, ZQK, FCX, SNCR
  

Fast Money Recap July 2

Sector summary from Google finance July 2, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 29

• Going into next quarter, oil is great (XLE), materials and miners (VMC, FCX) are great, engineering stocks (FLR, SGR, MDR), CSCO great, own semis, stay out of financials, FXI performing very well, also OIH
• Plays on foreign companies acquiring US companies: UNH, CI
• HON could break up, so can GE , TWX, SNE
  
• Get out of NFLX and BBI
  
• iPhone trades: VOD currently valued better than T, RIMM, NOK
• Scenario: Oil goes to $80 a barrel. Buy and sell? Energy SPDR ETF, drilling company GSF, to TIPS to hedge against inflation, alternate energy company ESLR, TM for hybrid technology, sell American car companies GM and F, sell travel related companies CAL, MAR, HTZ. Grade: A
• Scenario: FCC approves SIRI and XMSR merger. Buy and sell? Buy XMSR and short SIRI, longer term short the combined company and long terrestrial radio CCU and AAPL for iPod. Grade B
• Scenario: A private equity firm buys MGM. Buy and sell? Buy BOYD, IGT, WMS, a straddle on TRMP and sell UBET. Grade B-, because no mention of Kirk Kerkorian, Vegas and/or Macau
  
• Correction in financials, if want to buy then AFL, HSBA which are Asian insurance plays, the goto stocks are technology ORCL, DELL, INTC, MSFT, JNPR also the industrials SPDR is XLI, JOYG a coal play, BIDU on China, FDX has gone lower this year and estimates are low, also UNH
• Final trade: INTC, HPQ, DELL, CHL, CHU, BIDU, SOHU, CSCO, DIS
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 29, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 28

• GM and F good charts
• Stay away from SOV, WB, DISH on charts
  
• Good charts CE, LTR
• Semiconductors under owned right now
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 28, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 27

• Brokers and tech went up today
• ORCL numbers were great
• Demand for gasoline is immense, own refiners
• Sell HOC
• Electricity demand is going to be 2-3% higher this year, plays EXC, ETR, CEG
• It isn't a bearish double top in Dow because it is separated by just 5 days
• Despite higher avacado costs, CMG is a good trade
• Final trade: PETM, DNDN, RIMM, USU
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 27, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 26

• Choppy market, both NASDAQ and S&P500 settled below 50 day MA, on the downside look for 1475 in the S&P and 1850 in the NASDAQ
• BX was rich on valuation, more down side expected
• ORCL integrating acquisitions very well, performing well
• LEN disappointed, homebuilders not at the bottom yet
• TGT insiders are bailing
• Own refiners on the dip, west coast refiners include VLO (up 45% YTD PE 8), ALJ (up 76% YTD PE 14), WNR (up 120% YTD PE 13), HOC a bit rich so take profits
• NKE exploding after earnings, global growth story, some risk in endorsement deals in basketball, golf doing great, new driver introduced can be huge
• American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference going on, a number of names came out: AZN, BMY (Plaviz story), ISIS, BIIB, ELN
• Own oil may be through USO
• To play the volatility buy SPY July $151 call and July $149 put (strangle)
• Play on the immigration bill: EVC
• Final trade: GOOG, EMC, UARM, NKE
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 26, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 25

• Major reversal is alarming, GS might be caught up in the sub-prime situation is more alarming, this will last at least a couple of weeks
• BX is overpriced, but the whole financial space pulled back big today
• YHOO finally joining the GOOG model
• NVDA rich at 22x
• Brazilian meat processors have been doing great: PDA, SDA
• TIF had an unusual buy activity today, TIF is part of the rich-people trade, also look at SKS and BID
• Own some GLD for 3 reasons, dollar going south, other precious metals strong, oil is strong
• Water trade: WTR, VE, SJW
• Rental car companies downgraded, costs increasing because not getting fleet sales, flip side long trade is GM, also with oil up, less air travel
• Final trade: CNC, DOG, GOOG
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 25, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 22

• BX is a great story but don't buy
• M up on take over speculation, but unlikely
• Infrastructure plays: MDR, JEC, FLR, SGR
• Short FINL as they are buying GCO, a company twice its size, financed purely with debt, similar thing happened in movie rental space and it was a disaster, may be long FL
  
• Diabetes drug is a huge area, AMLN is a pure play on diabetes drug, AMLN with LLY has developed Byetta, which contains chemicals originally found in the saliva of Gila Monster (a lizard), this drug has to be taken twice a day, the drug also helps lose weight, also working on once a week version with ALKS
• Scenario: Congress passes law that essentially taxes all the money made by private equity and hedge fund managers at the income tax rate rather than capital gains rate: Buy blue chip stocks with international exposure like PEP, GE, QCOM, SLB, GSK, SI, UL, sell local REITs. Grade: C, the correct answer would have been selling luxury item vendors and companies like New York apartments, luxury boats, planes, BID etc, PE and HF $$$ is funneling into these
• Scenario: Russia built a Nat Gas pipeline to China, buy and sell? This a perfect marriage between low cost energy and an economic growth engine, buy Gazprom, which controls 95% of Russia's Nat Gas market, also Aluminum because energy is the cost driver in its production, AA, AL, selling BTU, PTR. Grade: A, could be a matter of time and the pipeline is a possibility
• Final trade: FL, NKE, BP, HD
  

Fast Money Recap June 21

• Blackstone group (BX) highly oversubscribed IPO, everyone wants to own a piece, Macke says don't buy what smart guys are selling, Najarian suggests not to buy for the same reasons as FIG
• Chip stocks exploded without news, NSM stock exploded when it reported, people are betting on the upside in MU and CY
• We are returning to growth phase, the first sector to get hot is chips, look at SMH
• Favorite names in chip space: INTC, NVDA, IBM, Vmware IPO coming up
• DJ deal will get done the question is about price
• Can still own SJM even after the current rise
  
• TXT got order for planes fron NetJets, price target $140
• WMI has fantastic chart, also look at CVA
• Nikkei (Japan) hit 7 year high, EWJ is the ETF on Japan which has lagged, TM, NTDOY, SNE
• Casual dining like DRI, CKE, SONC got hit hard today due to lesser consumer spending and they are vulnerable to rising gas prices and interest rates
  
• Educational plays: CECO, COCO, STRA, ESI
• Final trade: USU, HON, BMY, HAS
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 21, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 20

• BBY had higher sales on low margin items, their earnings are probably going to recover in Q4
• Keep an eye on GME, its actually a next year story
• Second set of Ag plays: SYT, CF, TTC, GIS, MOS
• Summer trades: DECK, ZQK, HMC (jet ski), STZ, COLM
• Final trade: COLM, TRA, DOG, NMX
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 20, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 19

• HD announced selling construction supply unit, could go to $45
• Lot of momentum in financials, BAC compelling also upgraded by UBS on valuation
• Today institutional investors sold almost 100,000 calls and bought puts suggesting they are not expecting an upward move in YHOO
• Direct negative correlation between airlines and gasoline
• Too early to buy BBY on this pullback though the next 2 quarter could be good for them
• Today's move in GE possibly due to BA announcing plane orders meaning more GE engines
• Both MNT and MRX are vanity plays
• Plays on golf include NKE, FO, ELY, and DKS
• Final trade: HD, BYD, BAC, NWS (if the YHOO deal happens)
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 19, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 18

• YHOO CEO stepped down, for next 6 months every news will be ok news, can go long but if gets to $32 get out, rumors that they are looking at Facebook for about $10bil
• With oil at $70, buy XLE and OIH, new money going into them
• Keep an eye on BIDU, CHL, CHU, there is a lot of upside there
• Downgrade of BTU is profit taking, longer term is a great stock, also ACI
• Looks like BluRAY will win the DVD war, this is great for SNE
• FINL acquiring Genesco (GCO), this makes FL more compeling
• Looking at LEH and GS earnings MS will have monster earnings and big move up then will be a time to get out
• There is still to buy AA even when they are in take over talks with BHP, there are other names to look at soon as this deal is done: CLF, RYI, TS; Also FCX is great company which stole PD
• Summer trade: NTDOY, GME, TOPP
• POOL's business is a growth industry
• Interest rates seemingly going higher, stay away from housing stocks
• Trades on UK: JSAIY, AZN, ALGN, BTI
• Final trade: MS, FCX, YHOO

Sector summary from Google Finance June 18, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 15

• CPI numbers good
• Companies that exploded are the ones with global exposure
• Next week there are no significant economic numbers so rally might fade towards mid-week
• Treasury yields have had 50 basis point move and stocks have not factored that in yet and the effect can be 5-10%
• Look at ETF DBA for commodities exposure (Fast Money AG plays are up 59% over the year compared to 18% for S&P500)
• This is a great environment for emerging market stocks ticker EEM
• GS upgraded INTC but NVDA isn't a cheap stock anymore but it is probably worth its multiple for now
• The rally over the last 3 years is primarily because of energy sector, as oil goes up a lot of companies make more money
• HOC is richly valued right now compared to COP so it is advisable to take profits
• MRO could be a great stock going forward
• Possible acquisition among brokers - OXPS, NITE, JEF, TRAD, IBKR
• JEF is not only a take over play but also a strong company
• CHTR is 250% last year
• Scenario: After a pause today surging food prices and a too hot Chinese economy reignite inflation fears and the 10 yr treasury yield jumps up to the evil 6% number, buy and sell? First thing is to short REITs VNO, BXP and GGP, these have grown most over the last 3 years so they'll be the most vulnerable, for equities need to play safe so put money in high quality large cap dividend yielding stocks like MO, GE, C also wanna go long FIS, GS and SHLD. Grade: B
• Scenario: Al-Sadr galvanizes support for the Iraqi parliament, ousts the current government and seizes control of the country, buy and sell? In the short run get out of HAL so short HAL and KBR, HAL's spin off because of their exposure in Iraq, the sole reaction would be downturn in US market, so short the S&P ETF and short the dollar, oil prices will go up with uncertainty in the Middle East, so go long on oil futures, buy CVX and XOM, buy gold, in the longer term buy military contractors such as GD, NOC and LMT. Grade: A
• Scenario: INTC buys NVDA, buy and sell? Everybody is talking about INTC so go short INTC and long NVDA based on the traditional merger arbitrage transaction, long term go long on both NVDA and INTC but sell AMD, INTC will benefit from acquiring NVDA's best of breed in graphics porcessing and will close the gap from lost market share to AMD, INTC will also indirectly benefit from AMD's decision to outsource chip making. Grade: B+
• Trade update: Sell MTL, CTRN has room to $45 and has a huge short interest, For LZB MLF Investments was a huge short seller, they turned buyer in Dec, sell WGO, buy MGM
• Final trade: TIE, MS, ADBE
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 15, 2007

Sector summary from Google Finance June 14, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 14

• Very strong market for past couple of days
• But this is still volatile market
• 89% refining capacity instead of 93-94% which pushed the whole refining industry up along with the whole oil sector
• Three great west coast refiners: CVX, TSO, FTO
• GS down on earnings, the expectations were too high but it the numbers were not unbelievable, EB suggested that last year the stock sold off for 3 days after earnings then went higher and stayed
• Russia, South America, China up across the board around 3%
  
• Russia has been lagging emerging markets, best credit story, growing 6-7% yearly for last 5 and will for next 5 years, political risk may have reduced in G8
• Great time to buy: oil & gas sectors - OGZPY
• Also South Korea: PKX
• Stay long energy, metals, miners
• ICE is either going to be a target after CME-BOT merger, or they will buy somebody else
• Aggressive options activity in ACF for July and August 30 calls
  
• Ag play: MON, AGU, DE, BG, DBA (commodity fund)
• NOK 50% ahead of MOT in emerging markets, is an industry leader
• There is a sea change in phone prices with iPhone at $499 and NOK N95 at $795, RIMM is a definite beneficiary of this change which offers added services
• Shutterfly (SFLY) - service for sharing photos, might be take over candidate
• Baby boomers cruising big time but due to fuel costs cruise companies are not worth buying right now
• Instead stick with SSW, TK, DRYS
• Final trade: COP, TYC, SFLY, NMX
  

Sector summary from Google Finance June 13, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 13

• Market up big today on Fed's Beige Book
• Expect continued volatility for at least next couple of weeks
• Stay with whats been working in this environment: HPQ, DELL
• Avoid financials and go for large-cap
• Keep oil in the portfolio
• UTX, FLR, CAT have trended higher
• ICE wants deal done for BOT
• NMX might get a bid from NYX
• For GS earnings tomorrow the good news is priced in but otherwise it is a good long-term story
• CAT is expecting $50bil revenue by 2010 and 15-20% rev growth. Bernstein has $100 price target
• Construction boom in China, plays CBE, ITW(Bernstein has $68 target & MER $63), FWLT, ACM (exposure in Dubai), also steel and iron ore stocks like RIO and PKX
  
• About YHOO the street has lost patience and the CEO has lost credibility
• The expectations are already priced into AMZN, online retail is hot and that can be seen in MA and AXP, Fidelity has 10% of MA, AXP trades at lower multiple
• BA is international story
• Sector trade: Hotel stocks - WYN, MAR, HOT
• Final trade: HOT, USU, NTRI, TRLG
  

Fast Money Recap June 12

• Benchmark 10-yr Treasury yields climb to 5.27%, highest since 2002
• A lot of financial models depend upon cheap money which isn't cheap any more
• The major concern is how fast the rates moved from 4.8% to 5.27%
• High rates means a lot of reasons to sell equities and there are not many reasons to buy
• Big pharma stocks to focus on BMY, LLY and SGP
• Regulatory approval of CME-BOT deal has paved way for further consolidation causing the sector to go higher today - ICE, NITE, ITG, JEF
• MCD replaced SBUX of Goldman conviction buy list but they are late to this call
• CAL breaking down on TA and on FA side high prices of jet fuel a big problem
• DISH just dipped out of its trend channel
• RIMM has been trading in a band $130-145, not at $175, buy if it comes back into the band
• MCD also trading band story
• T continues to hold the trading band
• AAPL was downgraded by an analyst from ThinkEquity Partners saying that the iPhone launch excitement is already priced into the stock while he kept the target at $130. During interview he also mentioned that the key thing to look at is how it is received by the consumers

Sector summary from Google Finance June 12, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 11

• Disappointing day
• Nothing spectacular came out of AAPL developer conference and stock rolled over
• This is traders market
• Macy's is having integration problems
• Political turmoil in Ivory Coast which is major exporter of cocoa, so sell Nestle and Hershey's (HSY)
• Bearish corn report
• For nickel price collusion might be going on
• CROX has 25% short interest, today 36,000 calls out of 50,000 options
• MNKD is working on a diabetes drug, there is been huge options activity, and stock has moved higher over past couple of trading days, they might announce something about the drug trials on Needham conference this Wednesday
• YHOO is dead and Terry Semel (CEO) is over compensated
• Options activity indicates there BP might gobble up an ethanol producer possibly VSE but this may be unsubstantiated rumor
• New data suggests that there might be 1 in 85 people suffering with Alzheimer's disease by 2050, some of the companies with surging stocks are MDVN, NRMX, MYGN
• A multi billion dollar weight loss drug from Sanofi-Aventis (SNY)
• How to make money from plastic replacing cash? CEO of Jack Henry & Assoc (JKHY) mentioned that there is a significant decline in usage of checks, there is significant growth around 30% in payment processing business e.g. ATM, debit card, electronic bill payment etc
• Latin American trade: HXM (shortage of 4.2mil homes in Mexico each year there is demand of 700,000), CIB (re-elected president intends to turn Colombia into Chile), ABV (Brizal), CX (Mexico)
• Final trade: SXR, DOG, NOK, T
  

Pakistan's Stock Boom

Today a report in WSJ stated that the Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index has climbed 32% this year reaching 13274.87 last Friday. The compounded growth rate for the past 2.5 years comes out to be around 35%. This journey of KSE100 is no doubt remarkable despite all the political instability and consistent lack of law and order.

This report included the following passage:

Market analysts predict that Pakistan's stocks will remain attractive because they are significantly cheaper than those in Asian markets such as India, China, Thailand and the Philippines. For the current year, the Pakistani market is trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 10, "which is a 40% discount to average P/E multiples of other Asian countries," says Mohammed Sohail, director of equity broking at Karachi-based J.S. Global, one of Pakistan's largest securities firm.

I see two major flaws in this reasoning. First, this report does not mention any reason for the 40% discount in P/E. Second, the comparison between Pakistan and other Asian markets especially China and India does not hold because the economic growth depends on sectors that vary among these countries. Furthermore the political situation in these countries is even more different.

For Pakistan, first, the reigns of the government have been tag teamed between democratically elected governments and the Army causing a perpetual instability. Second, although there is a significant influx of foreign capital and remittances, the infrastructure is utterly inadequate for handling economic development. Pakistani government claims that over the past couple of years the GDP growth has been around 7 to 9%, which means that there has been significant economic development. One result of this activity coupled with lack of adequate infrastructure is that the intermittent electricity supply in major cities like Karachi and Lahore. This year the shortage of electricity has been more severe than ever, causing blackouts (known as load shedding in Pakistan) of around 10 to 12 hours at a time as frequent as daily. This is seriously impacting the businesses.

I believe that the low P/E can be somewhat explained when the risks of investing in Pakistan are considered. Since no change in these risks is expected in the near future, the P/E multiple will may not go higher.

Sector summary from Google finance June 11, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 8

• Classic Friday reversal
• Expect the market to be up or down 100-200 points
• Nothing has fundamentally changed this week
• Chip stock exploded: NSM, KLAC, AMAT, XLNX
• NVDA might be acquired or do a joint thing with INTC
• After the news about possible merger/acquisition of X, look for stock that have been underperforming e.g. RYI, MTL
• Trades on weaker Yen include SNE, TM
• Gold plunged 4%
• Stick with winners, which opened higher yesterday but sold off, they recovered today what they lost yesterday
• Among Russian companies Lukoil and Gazprom are buy
• Over the past few weeks emerging markets have become better plays than before and development markets have slipped
• Next week brokers are starting earnings announcements, Monday morning start buying investment banks, ride upto GS earnings and sell on the eve of GS earnings (according to Cramer don't buy if bond yields remain above 5%)
• Scenario: Coke and Pepsi decide to follow Jones Soda's lead to switch from high fructose corn syrup to pure cane sugar. Buy and sell: Neutral Pepsi because of their larger product base, but sell Coke because this will have a negative impact on their cost structure as sugar is not only more expensive but it also takes more amount to get the same level of sweetness, sell HFCS producers like ADM and Corn Products International, which get 18% sales from beverage companies, buy sugar suppliers like Imperial Sugar in US and a Brazilian company called Cozi N SA ??, they are the largest suger processor in the world and will greatly benefit from this trend: Grade A, additionally a long position on General Mills because they already raised prices due to high price of corn
• Scenario: The G8 meeting concludes and the Japanese finance minister expresses a desire to diversify the country's foreign reserves. Buy and sell: Japan will be moving money out of the US treasuries, so go short the US treasuries, it is going to put a lot of pressure on the dollar so go short the dollar index, where are they going? they are going to China, China is investing in Black Stone Group, so Japan will follow suit, buy FXI, DXELX, also PTR. Grade B+, when diversifying from dollar, at least go into gold, treasuries are a long term trade so don't need to sell
• Scenario: A rare disease is found in a series of cows in the midwest, requiring the elimination of 20% of our cattle. Buy and sell: short grain, short Danon, Dean Foods, Tyson, on retail side short McDonald, Burger King, Ruth Chris. Grade B, include futures in the trades
• Scenario: Disney comes out and says that it is going to release major motion pictures simultaneously on DVDs. Buy and sell: This is a milestone on the way to the direct delivery of digital media to the end user, so buy Apple becuause it has licensing agreement with Disney to distribute content online, second also buy Juniper and Akamai, since online delivery of digital media will increase the demand for storage and network capacity significantly, sell weak video chains. Grade A
• GILD was recommended last week but it had a couple of downgrades, GA still likes it
• CLF was recommended by PN, stock is down, he wasn't to stay long but suggested buying put for protection
• JM recommended selling PALM because he didn't think there is going to be a buyout, he still recommends to stay away
• Final trades: MBT, short EEM, TIVO, MS
  

Sector summary from Google finance June 8, 2007

Fast Money Recap June 7

• Today the indices were up for the first 1 hour but then they just rolled over and kept going down all day
• Tomorrow markets will most probably open higher but if selling starts it will be similar to today
• DOG, SDS are short ETFs on Dow and S&P respectively
  
• Get out of XLU and look for a lower entry point or when market is better
• Telecom sector is affected by interest rates so wait
• There is a buying opportunity to get into Banks especially GS
• Get out and stay away from homebuilders
• Commercial REITs like PSA might be a good play
• Both S&P and NASDAQ are sitting at 50-day MA. Support on S&P is 1470-1490. Nasdaq 100's first support level is 1880 and the second is around 1740.
• Use rallies to sell
• Stocks going on sale: MSFT, JNJ ($60 bottom), DVY, PID, MS, GS
• Have to own AAPL, T, GOOG, BIDU, NVDA, AMD
• 
  

Fast Money Recap June 6

• Probably continued selling tomorrow
• Opportunity to go long would porbably be next week
• HPQ, BA, LMT are great names
• Today's WMT action was bullish
• Beating the tape: AAPL, NFLX, PGR, X
• YZC is a coal company in China
• USO is a play on global oil turmoil
• Final trade: ATVI, PGR, BAC, GOOG

Fast Money Recap June 5

• Movie studios are willing to release movies on DVD and VoD. Cable providers like CMCSA and DISH stand to gain. Also Disney, Viacom and NBC will benefit.
• GOOG reached all time high today. Its a buy. There are rumors of split. BIDU is also growing at astronomical place.
• Ahead of Thursday some retail plays are JOSB, GYMB, PLCE, CWTR.
• The economy might have bottomed in the first quarter but the earnings forecast hasn't changed. So there are probably going to be a number of surprises.
• Stock to benefit from growth in Japan include NTDOY, TM.
• Global construction boom well under way and JEC a way to play that.
• Final trades: ATVI, FWLT, DFJ, VMC.

Fast Money Recap June 4

• Despite 8% drop in Chinese market, Chinese ADRs listed on US markets performed well e.g. HMIN, primarily because they are tied with liquidity in US.
• Great stocks to buy CTRP, BIDU, CHL, JOYG (coal mining equipment maker).
• WMT is a buy.
• One way to make money from the bid for Dow Jones by Rupurt Murdoch is to buy a straddle (Call and Put together) but since so many people are betting on it, the options are extremely overpriced. Instead a better way would be to short the stock, as there is an upside of 5% or so expected now and if the deals falls through the downside is around 30%. Upside call can be used to hedge risk of the stocks further upward movement.
• There has been unusual options and stock activity in HOT, WYN and today same happened in MAR.
• Nat Gas is a buy showing inverted head and shoulder pattern and possibly on its way to $11.
• 3 trader out of 4 are buyers of AAPL due to the iPhone release. Most agree that PALM is a sell.
• IBM has slashed 3,700 jobs, announced $15b buyback, raised quarterly dividend by 22% and it is up 11% since April 24. But there is no organic growth. Selling bond to finance buyback.
• Airline stocks sold off in the wake of foiled JFK aiport plot. OSIS is growing at 30% annually. CCJ and SU are play on energy requirement if something unimaginable happens.

Fast Money Recap June 1

Will post later.

Fasy Money Recap May 31

We should be bullish on technology as capex spending has been week for past 2 years and companies need to spend on technology to stay competitive. The numbers of the tech companies might not get affected for next 2 quarters. AAPL and GOOG have low forward P/E. On the other hand CELG trades at 333 P/E, GENZ at 429 and ERTS at 129. Tech is wildly under owned. People will get back in big hurry. The market action in DELL has been encouraging today. It is not a bad company and is set to trade at $30. People need to get out of the short side. The Ultimate tech play of the decade is GOOG. There is a lot of user generated content out there and ADBE is one of the ways that is being done. AAPL and ADBE look fantastic on the charts. Also RIMM is great on technical basis.

Retailers to own (which do not whine about gas prices) include TIF - benefiting from weak dollar, SKS - destination for Europeans, COH and RL. Also included in the list are NILE and LVMH.

Some small cap and lightly traded biotech stocks to watch PARD (colon and lung cancer drug), GPCB, PHRM and SPPI (developmental drug for prostrate cancer). BIIB is a takeout candidate.

JCG surged 8% in after hours trading. PALM released Foleo which is neither a handheld nor a laptop. Instead it is a big device which nobody on Fast Money likes. LGF is not an earnings story instead it is a studio, massive library of films, and intellectual property play. KFT is play on food. Ethanol stocks are a wreck and downgraded by BAC, this includes PEIX and AVR. They have negative ROE. T's CEO showed interest in international acquisitions.

CLF has moved higher over one week especially today. It is still a buy due to take over and also businesses. PCP was added to S&P500 today, hit 52-week high and is a buy.

Fast Money Recap May 30

S&P 500's record breaking climb, is this just a number or there are more meaningful implications? According to Eric Bolling, its not time for a correction yet, S&P P/E is cheap, but he hopes to see a correction soon. Pete Najarian said XLF has been strong, financials have been winners trading towards 52 week high including GS, MER, LEH, AXP, BAC and C. They are printing money along with exchanges, because this is still an untapped area. Trading in China is strong, some numbers show 250,000 to 300,000 account openings a day. Jeff Macke said that these sectors generally lag but they are climbing higher and bears are getting completely annhilated. There probably won't be a healthy correction and it will keep going higher until the bubble will burst. A strong market bear Doug Kass has lately turned bullish and this is being considered a sign of the upcoming upside. Today the market was down till FOMC minutes came out saying Q3 and Q4 are going to be good. The market continues to look for reasons to buy with breakouts in GOOG, AAPL and GS.

Since 2002 XLY (Energy) is up 207%, XLU (Utilities) is up 172%, XLB (Materials) is up 144% and XLK (Tech) is up 122%. The first 3 are still buy. Pete Najarian added OIH for those who want to get oil services exposure.

Best way to trade China could be GSOL, BIDU and CHL. Volitility has come down a lot in these stocks causing the options to be really cheap. The puts on these stocks could be used to hedge risk in Chinese market.

Macke thinks AAPL is going higher to $130, while according to Najarian Morgan Stanley has set target of $150. According to Adami there will be consolidation in the retail investment firms to 2 to 3 players. Najarian suggested that this is apparent from options activity in AMTD, ETFC and OXPS. About GS Adami said that it is set to earn $26 this year and with 10x forward earnings has a target of $260. Najarian considers DNA very cheap and also likes AMLN because diabetes is not going away. Bolling still likes TSO and POT

Final trades are MSFT and NTDOY.PK for the digital revolution, CBH, which has unusual call volume, EMC, which is up past few days despite other network storage like NTAP moving down and BUCY which is a minig stock.

Plays on corn boom.

Lately I have been scouring news for investment/trading ideas. The article "Ethanol Creates A Pricing Puzzle For Corn Farmers" caught my eye. It says "Across the plains, farmers are placing big bets on where the price of corn will go in 2007. They are preparing to plant more corn than they have in decades, spending more on seed and fertilizer, investing in new equipment and buying crop insurance against the possibility of bad weather." So, I have started searching for possible plays on corn seed, fertilizers, equipment (planting, harvesting and more) and insurance.

Monsanto (MON) seems to be a good play on seeds. Haven't found rest of the plays as yet. If you happen to know of any, feel free to post your comment.